The United States and India, allies built through two decades of diplomatic effort, are now at odds. President Donald Trump’s recent trade offensive—imposing a hefty 25% tariff on Indian imports atop an existing 25% duty—threatens to unravel this progress. Analysts warn this could mark the relationship’s lowest ebb since 1998, when the US sanctioned India over nuclear tests. The trigger? India’s continued purchase of Russian oil amid Trump’s push to isolate Moscow over Ukraine.
Trade Disputes Fuel Tensions
India’s $50 billion trade surplus with the US and its reliance on Russian energy have made it a target in Trump’s global tariff campaign. His suggestion that India buy oil from Pakistan, a historic rival, has been met with derision in New Delhi. Indian leaders have fired back, accusing the US of hypocrisy for importing Russian goods like uranium while punishing India. Opposition parties are pressing Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resist what they call Trump’s “bullying,” amplifying domestic pressure.
Geopolitical Ripples
India’s balancing act—maintaining ties with both Russia and the US—faces scrutiny. Experts like Ashley Tellis from the Carnegie Endowment suggest Modi may quietly cut Russian oil imports to ease tensions, though he’ll avoid public concessions. Meanwhile, India is deepening ties with Russia and China, with Putin’s upcoming visit and Modi’s planned trip to Beijing signaling a strategic pivot. This could complicate its role as a US partner against China’s rise.
Domestic and Bilateral Strains
Beyond trade, issues like work visas and outsourcing rile Trump’s base, risking India’s image in US politics. Recent friction—from deportations to an alleged assassination plot tied to India—has further eroded trust. India must now mend ties with the US while exploring options like BRICS partnerships, navigating a diplomatic tightrope as both nations grapple with internal pressures.
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