Inflation-hit Pakistanis may be in for another round of relief at the fuel pumps as petroleum product prices are expected to fall once again from August 16. The anticipated decrease follows a consistent drop in global crude oil prices over the past 11 days, offering hope to consumers already burdened by high living costs.
Global Oil Prices Show Significant Decline
Market data reveals that US crude oil prices have dropped by $5.71 per barrel, falling from $69.26 to $63.48. Similarly, Brent crude has seen a fall of $5.72 per barrel, dropping from $71.70 to $65.98.
These downward trends in the international oil market are the main reason behind expectations for reduced domestic petroleum prices in Pakistan. Analysts believe that if this trend continues, consumers could see one of the most substantial fuel price cuts in recent months.
Government to Announce New Rates on August 15
The federal government is scheduled to review and adjust petroleum prices on August 15, with the new rates taking effect from August 16. This fortnightly price adjustment system ensures that domestic fuel prices reflect global market trends, exchange rate fluctuations, and government-imposed taxes or levies.
In the previous review, the government reduced the petrol price by Rs7.54 per litre, setting it at Rs264.61, while diesel prices were increased by Rs1.48 to Rs285.83 per litre. The mixed adjustment came amid global oil price volatility and domestic tax considerations.
Petroleum Levy and Government Revenue Targets
During the National Assembly’s Question Hour session, Minister of State for Petroleum Ali Pervez Malik addressed questions about fuel pricing and taxation. He confirmed that on April 16, 2025, the petroleum levy was increased by Rs8 on petrol and Rs7 on diesel.
However, Malik clarified that consumer prices were not raised at that time, indicating the government absorbed the additional cost instead of passing it on to the public. This move, he suggested, was aimed at cushioning the impact of inflation.
The minister also revealed that Rs34.87 billion was collected through the petroleum levy until June 30. For the fiscal year 2025–26, the government projects an estimated collection of Rs1.485 trillion from this source, highlighting the significant role petroleum levies play in Pakistan’s revenue generation.
Relief for Consumers Amid Inflationary Pressures
Pakistan’s economy has been under intense pressure from high inflation, currency depreciation, and fluctuating commodity prices. Fuel prices, in particular, directly affect transportation costs, which in turn influence the prices of essential goods and services.
If the upcoming price cut is confirmed, it could provide short-term relief to consumers and transporters. Experts, however, caution that such relief may be temporary, as global oil prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, OPEC production decisions, and shifts in demand.
International Market Outlook
Energy market analysts are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, US shale oil production, and global economic growth forecasts. Any supply disruptions or demand surges could reverse the recent downward trend in oil prices.
For now, the combination of stable supply and weaker-than-expected global demand has kept prices in check. Seasonal factors, such as reduced summer driving demand in the US and Europe, may also be contributing to the current dip.
What to Expect on August 16
With the official price review just days away, Pakistani consumers are eagerly awaiting confirmation of a further drop in petrol and diesel rates. If the government aligns domestic prices with the current global oil market, motorists could see notable savings at the pump starting August 16.
For now, all eyes are on the Ministry of Finance and the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), which will finalize and announce the rates. Whether this downward trend continues into the coming months will depend largely on the international oil market’s volatility and Pakistan’s domestic economic policies.
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